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Four in five PE firms had a portfolio company disrupted last year. Model what that looks like across your holdings.
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This figure is your expected annual cost of a serious incident: the likelihood of one in a given year (drawn from Kroll, IBM, and DBIR data, adjusted for your 24/7 MDR coverage) multiplied by what one costs. It's an average across many years. Most years cost less, and a bad one costs far more. It excludes reputational damage, LP confidence, and exit value, so treat it as an estimate, not a forecast.
*Risk exposure estimates.
Submit your details and we'll show you the modelled figure now — the full report follows separately.
In priority order. Start with 24/7 MDR and get to a full view of every portfolio company you sponsor.
We model two things separately, because the research measures them separately: how often a material incident happens, and what one costs when it does.
How often: companies × likelihood per company + add-ons × 0.04
Likelihood per company: uncovered base rate × size factor × governance factor × (1 − 0.90 × 24/7 coverage)
Cost per incident: $2.1M × (1 − 0.275 × 24/7 coverage) × (1 − 0.0465 if your IR plan is tested)
Annual exposure: expected incidents × cost per incident
At the default inputs, that's 1.87 expected incidents a year × $1.90M per incident = $3.54M.
Kroll found 80% of PE firms had a portfolio company disrupted by cyber risk in the past year. Spread across a 25-company reference portfolio, that works out to 6.2% per company per year. Kroll's respondents already had some monitoring in place, so we re-anchor to a company with no 24/7 coverage. That gives 9.1% a year, about one in eleven.
| Typical company size | Size factor | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Under 250 employees | 1.10 | Smaller companies turn more attacks into serious incidents. Ransomware appears in 88% of SMB breaches against 39% for large enterprises (Verizon, 2026) |
| 250 to 1,000 | 1.00 | Reference band |
| 1,000 to 5,000 | 0.95 | Larger companies face more attempts, with a median of 20 credential leaks a year against 7 (Verizon, 2026) |
| 5,000+ | 0.90 | The two effects largely offset, so we keep the band deliberately narrow |
| Factor | Effect | Acts on | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/7 managed detection and response | Up to −90% at full coverage, scaled linearly | How often | eSentire judgement, informed by a month of Atlas telemetry: confirmed attacks. We use the conservative end of our own data |
| 24/7 managed detection and response | Up to −27.5% at full coverage | What it costs | IBM: extensive security automation saves $1.93M of a $4.99M average breach. We credit less, because part of that saving is already counted on frequency |
| IR plan tested with the deal team | −4.65% | What it costs | IBM: a tested plan saves $232,000 per breach and takes 54 days off containment |
| Minimum controls mandated | −10% formal, −5% recommended, scaled by how much of the portfolio is covered | How often | Modelled. Kroll finds 55% of firms above $25B AUM govern through a formal mandate, against 12% below |
| Cyber diligence in every deal | −8% every deal, −4% some | How often | Modelled. Kroll: 81% above $25B AUM against 29% below |
| Comparable portfolio reporting | −4% | How often | Modelled. Kroll: 58% above $25B AUM against 9% below |
| Add-on acquisitions | +0.04 expected incidents per add-on | How often | Modelled. 48% of breaches involve a third party or supply chain (Verizon, 2026), and 30% of PE firms cite IT integration as a source of disruption (Kroll, 2026) |
Governance credits multiply rather than add. Firms that do one tend to do all three, so all three together earn 20.5% instead of 22%. Coverage and cost effects combine the same way.